With the crucial Uttar Pradesh elections scheduled next year, the power equations within the Samajwadi Party are also changing. Two decisions taken in the last 10 days have given a clear signal that Professor Ram Gopal Yadav, SP's all-powerful, one-man "think tank", may have been sidelined while his bete noire Shiv Pal Yadav has aligned himself firmly with CM Akhilesh Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav.
But the moot question on everyone's mind is what led to this changed equation?
REALPOLITIK RAGAAccording to sources, Mulayam's hand was forced by realpolitik, giving more leverage to Shivpal Yadav who is known more for his grip over the organisation than anything else.
The first clear indication of this change came from the decision to give a Rajya Sabha nomination to Amar Singh. Given the bad blood which followed Amar Singh's ouster from Samajwadi Party (Akhilesh Yadav and Ram Gopal Yadav had aligned over the issue), it was unthinkable a month ago that Amar Singh will enter Rajya Sabha on a SP ticket.
But Mulayam Singh Yadav was prevailed upon or rather he saw the merit in inducting Amar Singh to appease the Thakur community in the all-important election of 2017. According to highly placed sources, the party parliamentary party was divided over Amar Singh's induction with Ram Gopal Yadav and Azam Khan opposed to the idea. But Akhilesh Yadav, Shivpal Yadav and others were in favour. It was left to Mulayam to take the final decision and he picked Amar Singh.
Later, Shivpal Yadav tried to underplay the differences and claimed "there was no opposition to Amar Singh's name... all the names have been finalised with consensus". But the equation had changed and it was clear to everyone.
According to an SP leader, "It is but natural for Ram Gopal to oppose Amar Singh as he has seen what the Thakur leader is capable of. Besides, nobody has forgotten his legendary fund-raising abilities. Considering Amar Singh's equation with Mulayam, it won't be long before he starts gnawing at Ram Gopal Yadav's circle of influence".
RLD: WITH OR WITHOUT YOUThe second instance of the change in the air was the pre-poll alliance with RLD chief Ajit Singh.
There is a clear-cut division with the Samajwadi Pariwar and it was clear in the way Ramgopal Yadav and Shivpal Yadav reacted to it. Ram Gopal Yadav said, "In one's life credibility is most important. If someone loses his credibility he is no longer deemed important. Entering an alliance with such a person is not advisable for any political party".
But in Moradabad, Shiv Pal Yadav sang a different tune. He said, "We want all the parties who believe in the thoughts of Lohia ji, Gandhi Ji and Chaudhary Charan Singh to come together to remove communal powers and BJP from India".
THE SAIFAI SAGASources say that till the zila panchayat elections, there was no love lost between Akhilesh Yadav and Shiv Pal Yadav. In fact, the UP CM boycotted the Saifai mahotsav after sacking of three of his closest aides by Shiv Pal. Later, after the success of the zila panchayat elections, the relationship between Akhilesh and Shiv Pal improved and if sources are to be believed, Amar Singh played an important role in breaking this thaw.
Sources say Mulayam is aware of the task he is saddled along with the importance of the UP elections, and this is the reason why he is not letting personal likes or dislikes of any individual mar his political expediency. That is perhaps the biggest reason why Ram Gopal Yadav is feeling left out in the Samajwadi Parivar.